If we're calling out overpriced teams, we owe you the matched pair. Here are five teams our model rates higher than current bookmaker odds — and why.
The companion to our overrated list. If we're going to publish where bookmakers price teams above what our model says, we owe you the other side — teams where the market is pricing them lower than our 50,000 daily simulations support.
Two things to understand before reading on.
First, "market underrates them" does not mean "they're going to win." It means the gap between what bookmakers are charging and what our model thinks they deserve looks favourable. Underrated teams in tournament outrights still mostly lose.
Second, the gaps here are smaller in absolute terms than the overrated list, but more interesting in relative terms. Going from 1% to 2% is a 100% probability increase. Going from 16% to 12% is a 25% decrease. The teams below are mostly priced as long shots, and small probability shifts mean a lot for value when prices are long.
This is where most of the actual edge in tournament markets lives — in the middle of the field, not the top.
Same method as the overrated list:
When our number is higher than the market number, the team is undervalued by our reckoning.
We've ranked these by absolute gap, not by team quality. Some of these teams are genuinely top-eight contenders our model rates as such; others are dark horses our model thinks the market is dismissing too quickly.
The market: 9-11% Our model: 13.2%
Argentina are the reigning World Cup champions. You'd expect them to be near the top of the market.
They are — but not as close to the top as our model says they should be. The gap of 2-4 percentage points is the largest undervaluation of any major contender we track.
Why?
Our model gives strong weight to CONMEBOL confederation strength. South American teams have historically overperformed their Elo at World Cups by a meaningful margin. The market knows this in vague terms but doesn't price it as aggressively as our simulations do. We covered the methodology in the World Cup model post.
Argentina also benefit from bracket positioning in our current simulations. Their likely path to the semi-final runs through fewer top-five teams than several other contenders' paths. France and Brazil are likely to meet a top opponent in their quarter-final; Argentina's probable QF opponent is more often a strong-but-not-elite team.
Add reigning champion form, a settled spine, and Messi's likely final World Cup motivation, and our model is meaningfully above the market.
This isn't a contrarian take. Plenty of analysts rate Argentina near the top. The gap is just bigger than the market's pricing reflects.
The market: 1.5-2.5% Our model: 4.1%
Morocco shocked the world by reaching the World Cup 2022 semi-finals. The market remembers — they're not priced as 1000-1 dark horses anymore — but it has them returning more or less to pre-2022 levels.
Our model disagrees significantly.
The 2022 run wasn't a fluke. Morocco's underlying performance metrics (xG against, defensive structure, set-piece efficiency) have been improving consistently for several years. Their squad is largely intact and now tournament-experienced. Their recent international form is among the best in CAF.
CAF historically underperforms vs Elo at World Cups. Our confederation adjustments handicap them slightly because of this. Even with that handicap, our model has Morocco's win probability roughly 2x what the market is pricing.
To be clear: 4.1% is still long odds. We're not saying Morocco are favourites. We're saying that if you wanted to put a small amount on a non-traditional team going deep, Morocco at current prices is the closest thing to fair value among the long shots.
The market: 3-4% Our model: 5.7%
The host nation. Sharing hosting duties with Canada and Mexico, but the bulk of high-attendance matches happen in the US, including the final at MetLife Stadium.
Home advantage at World Cups is real. South Africa 2010, Brazil 2014, Russia 2018, Qatar 2022 — host nations consistently outperform their pre-tournament Elo, often by a significant margin. Our model applies a host-nation boost based on this historical pattern.
The US squad has improved markedly over the last decade. Christian Pulisic and Tyler Adams provide European-football experience; the youth pipeline is producing genuine top-flight talent. Their CONCACAF qualifying record is dominant.
The market seems to be pricing them as if home advantage is worth 1-2 percentage points. Our historical analysis suggests it's worth 2-4 for hosts of comparable strength.
The market: 2-3% Our model: 4.0%
Croatia have made the last two World Cup finals or semi-finals (2018 final, 2022 third place). Their tournament pedigree is exceptional. Yet they're priced as a third-tier contender heading into 2026.
The reason is squad age. Modrić, Brozović, Perišić — the spine of the recent Croatia teams is in the 35-38 age bracket. The market is pricing this as a near-disqualifier.
Our model does account for it (recent form is slightly down, Elo has dropped a touch), but it doesn't penalise as aggressively as bookmakers do. Two reasons.
First, Croatia's tournament history is too consistent to be coincidence. Six straight World Cup or Euros knockout-stage runs is not a fluke produced by one or two players. Their tactical structure, set-piece efficiency, and big-game discipline are systemic.
Second, Modrić and several other key veterans have been managing their minutes through the qualifying cycle specifically with this tournament in mind. The squad is being conserved. Whether it works is uncertain — but our model thinks the market has overcorrected.
If Croatia's veterans hold up physically, the team is meaningfully better than 2-3% probability suggests. The market is pricing pessimism that may or may not materialise.
The market: 1-1.5% Our model: 2.4%
Senegal are the African Cup of Nations champions (2021), reached the World Cup 2022 R16, and have a squad anchored by Premier League talent (Mané, Mendy, Koulibaly's successor pool).
CAF teams have collectively underperformed vs Elo at World Cups historically, and our confederation adjustments reflect that. Even with the handicap, the market is pricing Senegal materially below where our simulations land.
The gap is smaller in percentage points but proportionally large. The market has them at roughly half the probability our model assigns.
This is the most speculative of our undervalued picks. Senegal's path is brutal — likely through at least one CONMEBOL or top-UEFA opponent in the knockout rounds. But their squad strength and tournament experience justify a higher number than the market is offering, even accounting for the bracket difficulty.
The teams in this list (Morocco, US, Croatia, Senegal) are still long shots. Even at our model's higher probabilities, none of them are favoured to win. The exercise here is not "back these to win the tournament." It's "if you were going to put a small position on a non-traditional team, these prices look better than the market suggests."
Most long-shot tournament bets lose. That's how long-shot bets work. We're not telling you they'll win. We're telling you our model thinks the prices are off.
Some of the methodology informing this list — particularly the confederation adjustments and host-nation boost — relies on historical patterns that may not persist. Our model is upfront about this. We tune to past tournaments and we'll update based on 2026's results. If South American teams underperform vs Elo this World Cup, our adjustments are wrong, and we'll publish that.
Our calibration page tracks how our predictions compare to actual outcomes. Over the long run, if our overrated/underrated calls are systematically off, you'll see it there.
This isn't financial advice. It's a model output, published transparently. What you do with it is your call.
OddsIQ provides AI analysis, not financial or betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Gamble responsibly: BeGambleAware, GamCare, GamStop.