Model methodology, tournament analysis, and honest writing about what the math can and can’t tell you.
Bookmaker odds aren't just probabilities — they're probabilities plus a margin plus the weight of public money. Here are five teams the market currently overrates compared to our model.
If we're calling out overpriced teams, we owe you the matched pair. Here are five teams our model rates higher than current bookmaker odds — and why.
Calibration charts tell you whether a forecaster's predictions actually mean what they say. Here's how to read one, what good and bad look like, and why almost no betting tipster will show you theirs.
The mathematical formula for optimal bet sizing. Why it works, why it'll wreck you in practice, and the conservative version professional bettors actually use.
Bookmaker odds aren't static — they move as money comes in. The direction and speed of those moves carry information. Here's how to read them.
We've been live for a few months. Here are the matches our model got most badly wrong, what they tell us, and where the real biases are.
Croatia reached the final at 2.4% pre-tournament probability. Russia made the quarters at under 1%. The miss wasn't bad luck — it was structural. Here's what we changed.
Germany's 83% historical shootout win rate. England's 14%. Real pattern or small sample noise? Here's what 60 years of World Cup penalties actually tell you.
Every tipster site claims to have an edge. Here's ours, laid out in full — the math, the inputs, the feedback loop, and the things we'll never be able to predict.
Predicting a World Cup is harder than predicting a league. Here's how we simulate the entire tournament 50,000 times every single day — and what the numbers can and can't tell you.
Run a tournament 50,000 times and you don't get a prediction — you get a distribution. Here's the difference, why it matters, and what to do with it.
Every betting model that claims to factor in injuries is either using bad data or pretending. Here's what we tried, why we stopped, and what we use instead.
Expected goals revolutionised football analysis. It also produces some of the worst upset predictions in betting. Here's why xG falls down in the matches you actually care about.