World Cup 2026 — Group J.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇦🇷Argentina

99.0%qualify83.0%1st16.0%2nd

🇦🇹Austria

71.5%qualify9.2%1st62.4%2nd

🇩🇿Algeria

54.7%qualify4.8%1st49.9%2nd

🇯🇴Jordan

39.3%qualify3.0%1st36.3%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →