World Cup 2026 — Group J.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇦🇷Argentina

94.8%qualify67.5%1st27.4%2nd

🇦🇹Austria

63.6%qualify15.7%1st48.0%2nd

🇩🇿Algeria

51.6%qualify10.1%1st41.5%2nd

🇯🇴Jordan

40.9%qualify6.8%1st34.1%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →