World Cup 2026 — Group L.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England

99.4%qualify84.4%1st15.0%2nd

🇭🇷Croatia

86.4%qualify12.0%1st74.4%2nd

🇵🇦Panama

45.1%qualify2.3%1st42.7%2nd

🇬🇭Ghana

28.6%qualify1.3%1st27.3%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →