World Cup 2026 — Group L.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England

97.3%qualify73.5%1st23.8%2nd

🇭🇷Croatia

74.6%qualify18.2%1st56.4%2nd

🇵🇦Panama

42.2%qualify5.2%1st37.0%2nd

🇬🇭Ghana

31.0%qualify3.2%1st27.9%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →