🏴England
England World Cup 2026 chances.
Probability of winning the tournament
11.5%
Per 50,000 daily simulations. Updated every 24 hours.
Path to the trophy.
97.6%
Reach Group stage
46.2%
Reach Round of 16
26.0%
Reach Quarter-final
18.5%
Reach Semi-final
11.5%
Reach Final
Why the model gives England 11.5% to win.
- The model's current championship probability for England is **11.5%**, reflecting full-tournament simulation.
- Elo rating sits at **2158**, updated after every international.
- Recent form: **7 wins** in the last **10** internationals.
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