🇫🇷France
France World Cup 2026 chances.
Probability of winning the tournament
14.5%
Per 50,000 daily simulations. Updated every 24 hours.
Path to the trophy.
96.8%
Reach Group stage
50.6%
Reach Round of 16
31.7%
Reach Quarter-final
23.1%
Reach Semi-final
14.5%
Reach Final
Why the model gives France 14.5% to win.
- The model's current championship probability for France is **14.5%**, reflecting full-tournament simulation.
- Elo rating sits at **2237**, updated after every international.
- Recent form: **8 wins** in the last **10** internationals.
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