← World Cup 2026
🇫🇷France

France World Cup 2026 chances.

Probability of winning the tournament
20.2%
Per 50,000 daily simulations. Updated every 24 hours.

Path to the trophy.

99.3%
Reach Group stage
59.3%
Reach Round of 16
38.4%
Reach Quarter-final
31.3%
Reach Semi-final
20.2%
Reach Final

Why the model gives France 20.2% to win.

  • The model's current championship probability for France is **20.2%**, reflecting full-tournament simulation.
  • Elo rating sits at **2237**, updated after every international.
  • Recent form: **8 wins** in the last **10** internationals.
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Group IHow the model works →Pick a champion →