World Cup 2026 — Group I.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇫🇷France

96.8%qualify72.7%1st24.2%2nd

🇸🇳Senegal

62.8%qualify12.4%1st50.4%2nd

🇳🇴Norway

61.5%qualify12.1%1st49.4%2nd

🇮🇶Iraq

26.7%qualify2.8%1st23.9%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →