World Cup 2026 — Group I.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇫🇷France

99.4%qualify84.9%1st14.5%2nd

🇸🇳Senegal

73.1%qualify7.4%1st65.7%2nd

🇳🇴Norway

71.5%qualify6.8%1st64.7%2nd

🇮🇶Iraq

21.6%qualify1.0%1st20.6%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →