World Cup 2026 — Group I.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇫🇷France

99.3%qualify85.2%1st14.1%2nd

🇸🇳Senegal

72.8%qualify7.2%1st65.6%2nd

🇳🇴Norway

71.3%qualify6.7%1st64.6%2nd

🇮🇶Iraq

21.5%qualify0.9%1st20.5%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →