← World Cup 2026
🇵🇹Portugal

Portugal World Cup 2026 chances.

Probability of winning the tournament
3.4%
Per 50,000 daily simulations. Updated every 24 hours.

Path to the trophy.

89.1%
Reach Group stage
25.7%
Reach Round of 16
12.2%
Reach Quarter-final
6.8%
Reach Semi-final
3.4%
Reach Final

Why the model gives Portugal 3.4% to win.

  • The model's current championship probability for Portugal is **3.4%**, reflecting full-tournament simulation.
  • Elo rating sits at **2089**, updated after every international.
  • Recent form: **6 wins** in the last **10** internationals.
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