World Cup 2026 — Group K.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇵🇹Portugal

89.1%qualify45.6%1st43.5%2nd

🇨🇴Colombia

87.0%qualify41.4%1st45.5%2nd

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

39.2%qualify7.0%1st32.3%2nd

🇨🇩DR Congo

36.5%qualify6.0%1st30.5%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →