World Cup 2026 — Group K.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇵🇹Portugal

96.7%qualify50.8%1st45.9%2nd

🇨🇴Colombia

96.1%qualify45.1%1st51.0%2nd

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

35.7%qualify2.2%1st33.6%2nd

🇨🇩DR Congo

33.0%qualify2.0%1st31.1%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →