← World Cup 2026
🇪🇸Spain

Spain World Cup 2026 chances.

Probability of winning the tournament
16.9%
Per 50,000 daily simulations. Updated every 24 hours.

Path to the trophy.

99.3%
Reach Group stage
62.9%
Reach Round of 16
41.8%
Reach Quarter-final
29.0%
Reach Semi-final
16.9%
Reach Final

Why the model gives Spain 16.9% to win.

  • The model's current championship probability for Spain is **16.9%**, reflecting full-tournament simulation.
  • Elo rating sits at **2359**, updated after every international.
  • Recent form: **7 wins** in the last **10** internationals.
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