🇪🇸Spain
Spain World Cup 2026 chances.
Probability of winning the tournament
12.8%
Per 50,000 daily simulations. Updated every 24 hours.
Path to the trophy.
97.4%
Reach Group stage
52.9%
Reach Round of 16
33.4%
Reach Quarter-final
21.7%
Reach Semi-final
12.8%
Reach Final
Why the model gives Spain 12.8% to win.
- The model's current championship probability for Spain is **12.8%**, reflecting full-tournament simulation.
- Elo rating sits at **2359**, updated after every international.
- Recent form: **7 wins** in the last **10** internationals.
Read more