World Cup 2026 — Group H.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇪🇸Spain

99.3%qualify75.6%1st23.7%2nd

🇺🇾Uruguay

94.8%qualify22.3%1st72.5%2nd

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia

30.3%qualify1.1%1st29.2%2nd

🇨🇻Cape Verde

30.0%qualify1.1%1st28.9%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →