World Cup 2026 — Group H.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇪🇸Spain

99.3%qualify75.7%1st23.6%2nd

🇺🇾Uruguay

94.7%qualify22.2%1st72.5%2nd

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia

30.2%qualify1.1%1st29.1%2nd

🇨🇻Cape Verde

30.1%qualify1.0%1st29.1%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →