World Cup 2026 — Group H.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇪🇸Spain

97.4%qualify68.2%1st29.2%2nd

🇺🇾Uruguay

85.0%qualify26.4%1st58.6%2nd

🇨🇻Cape Verde

30.1%qualify2.8%1st27.3%2nd

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia

30.0%qualify2.7%1st27.3%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →