🇺🇾Uruguay
Uruguay World Cup 2026 chances.
Probability of winning the tournament
1.6%
Per 50,000 daily simulations. Updated every 24 hours.
Path to the trophy.
94.5%
Reach Group stage
22.7%
Reach Round of 16
10.6%
Reach Quarter-final
4.6%
Reach Semi-final
1.6%
Reach Final
Why the model gives Uruguay 1.6% to win.
- The model's current championship probability for Uruguay is **1.6%**, reflecting full-tournament simulation.
- Elo rating sits at **2017**, updated after every international.
- Recent form: **4 wins** in the last **10** internationals.
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