🇺🇸USA
USA World Cup 2026 chances.
Probability of winning the tournament
0.7%
Per 50,000 daily simulations. Updated every 24 hours.
Path to the trophy.
76.5%
Reach Group stage
16.7%
Reach Round of 16
8.6%
Reach Quarter-final
2.3%
Reach Semi-final
0.7%
Reach Final
Why the model gives USA 0.7% to win.
- The model's current championship probability for USA is **0.7%**, reflecting full-tournament simulation.
- Elo rating sits at **1861**, updated after every international.
- Recent form: **5 wins** in the last **10** internationals.
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