← World Cup 2026
🇺🇸USA

USA World Cup 2026 chances.

Probability of winning the tournament
1.1%
Per 50,000 daily simulations. Updated every 24 hours.

Path to the trophy.

50.9%
Reach Group stage
13.1%
Reach Round of 16
6.8%
Reach Quarter-final
2.7%
Reach Semi-final
1.1%
Reach Final

Why the model gives USA 1.1% to win.

  • The model's current championship probability for USA is **1.1%**, reflecting full-tournament simulation.
  • Elo rating sits at **1861**, updated after every international.
  • Recent form: **5 wins** in the last **10** internationals.
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Group DHow the model works →Pick a champion →