World Cup 2026 — Group D.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇹🇷Turkey

80.7%qualify35.5%1st45.2%2nd

🇺🇸USA

76.7%qualify29.4%1st47.3%2nd

🇵🇾Paraguay

69.7%qualify22.8%1st46.9%2nd

🇦🇺Australia

50.7%qualify12.3%1st38.4%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →