World Cup 2026 — Group D.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇹🇷Turkey

80.9%qualify35.1%1st45.8%2nd

🇺🇸USA

76.9%qualify29.9%1st47.1%2nd

🇵🇾Paraguay

69.7%qualify23.0%1st46.6%2nd

🇦🇺Australia

50.8%qualify12.0%1st38.8%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →