World Cup 2026 — Group D.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇹🇷Turkey

55.8%qualify23.1%1st32.7%2nd

🇺🇸USA

50.9%qualify19.4%1st31.5%2nd

🇵🇾Paraguay

44.5%qualify15.4%1st29.0%2nd

🇦🇺Australia

30.1%qualify8.7%1st21.5%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →