World Cup 2026 — Group A.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇲🇽Mexico

56.5%qualify22.6%1st34.0%2nd

🇰🇷South Korea

25.2%qualify6.2%1st19.0%2nd

🇨🇿Czechia

18.7%qualify4.1%1st14.6%2nd

🇿🇦South Africa

10.3%qualify1.8%1st8.5%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →