World Cup 2026 — Group A.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇲🇽Mexico

94.4%qualify61.5%1st32.9%2nd

🇰🇷South Korea

73.3%qualify19.1%1st54.2%2nd

🇨🇿Czechia

63.5%qualify13.3%1st50.2%2nd

🇿🇦South Africa

42.0%qualify6.2%1st35.8%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →