World Cup 2026 — Group A.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇲🇽Mexico

94.6%qualify61.3%1st33.3%2nd

🇰🇷South Korea

73.1%qualify19.4%1st53.7%2nd

🇨🇿Czechia

63.8%qualify13.1%1st50.7%2nd

🇿🇦South Africa

42.1%qualify6.2%1st35.9%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →