World Cup 2026 — Group E.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇩🇪Germany

98.6%qualify69.9%1st28.6%2nd

🇪🇨Ecuador

92.0%qualify25.5%1st66.6%2nd

🇨🇮Ivory Coast

51.1%qualify3.5%1st47.6%2nd

🇨🇼Curaçao

22.1%qualify1.1%1st21.0%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →