World Cup 2026 — Group E.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇩🇪Germany

98.5%qualify69.8%1st28.6%2nd

🇪🇨Ecuador

91.9%qualify25.5%1st66.5%2nd

🇨🇮Ivory Coast

51.5%qualify3.6%1st47.9%2nd

🇨🇼Curaçao

22.2%qualify1.1%1st21.1%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →