World Cup 2026 — Group E.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇩🇪Germany

94.1%qualify59.2%1st34.9%2nd

🇪🇨Ecuador

81.2%qualify28.7%1st52.5%2nd

🇨🇮Ivory Coast

47.6%qualify8.3%1st39.3%2nd

🇨🇼Curaçao

27.6%qualify3.7%1st23.9%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →