World Cup 2026 — Group F.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇳🇱Netherlands

88.3%qualify50.5%1st37.8%2nd

🇯🇵Japan

73.7%qualify26.8%1st46.8%2nd

🇸🇪Sweden

57.3%qualify15.4%1st41.9%2nd

🇹🇳Tunisia

36.8%qualify7.3%1st29.5%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →