World Cup 2026 — Group F.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇳🇱Netherlands

96.2%qualify63.1%1st33.2%2nd

🇯🇵Japan

83.5%qualify24.3%1st59.2%2nd

🇸🇪Sweden

62.1%qualify9.8%1st52.3%2nd

🇹🇳Tunisia

29.5%qualify2.8%1st26.7%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →