World Cup 2026 — Group F.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇳🇱Netherlands

96.3%qualify63.3%1st33.0%2nd

🇯🇵Japan

83.2%qualify24.1%1st59.1%2nd

🇸🇪Sweden

62.2%qualify9.7%1st52.4%2nd

🇹🇳Tunisia

29.7%qualify2.8%1st26.9%2nd

Read more

How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →