World Cup 2026 — Group G.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇧🇪Belgium

97.6%qualify72.7%1st24.9%2nd

🇪🇬Egypt

71.2%qualify12.8%1st58.4%2nd

🇮🇷Iran

68.5%qualify11.3%1st57.2%2nd

🇳🇿New Zealand

32.9%qualify3.1%1st29.8%2nd

Read more

How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →