World Cup 2026 — Group G.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇧🇪Belgium

97.5%qualify72.7%1st24.8%2nd

🇪🇬Egypt

70.9%qualify12.6%1st58.3%2nd

🇮🇷Iran

68.4%qualify11.5%1st56.9%2nd

🇳🇿New Zealand

33.2%qualify3.2%1st30.0%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →