World Cup 2026 — Group G.

Each team plays the other three in the group stage. The top two from each group qualify directly. The eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also advance, making 32 teams in the knockout round. Probabilities are derived from 50,000 daily Monte Carlo simulations.

Qualification probabilities.

🇧🇪Belgium

90.6%qualify56.1%1st34.5%2nd

🇪🇬Egypt

63.7%qualify18.4%1st45.4%2nd

🇮🇷Iran

62.0%qualify17.7%1st44.3%2nd

🇳🇿New Zealand

38.7%qualify7.8%1st30.8%2nd

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How the model works →Pick a champion →Knockout bracket →